Current & Future Interest Rates Trends October 18′

interest rate trends

Now that the traditional spring/summer buying and selling season is over, let’s take a look at how interest rates have been trending—and what may be in store in the coming months.

Generally, the interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage and on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage have been stable throughout the spring and summer real estate season. In the chart below from Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the interest rates have fluctuated only 0.12 percentage points on the 30-year fixed-rate and only 0.14 percentage points on the 15-year fixed-rate from April through August.

This stability in the rates is something we’ve seen the last two years during the same April-August timeframe, with a variance of 0.17 percentage points in the 30-year fixed and 0.14 percentage points in the 15-year fixed in 2017 and 0.17 in the 30-year fixed and 0.12 in the 15-year fixed in 2016.

 

Month 30-Year Fixed 15-Year Fixed
April 4.47% 3.93%
May 4.59% 4.07%
June 4.57% 4.04%
July 4.53% 4.01%
August 4.55% 4.02%

 

The weekly figures for the last six weeks also show fairly steady rates. Since August 16, the 30-year fixed has varied only 0.14 percentage points and the 15-year fixed has varied only 0.14 percentage points.

 

Weekly 30-Year Fixed 15-Year Fixed
August 16 4.53% 4.01%
August 23 4.51% 3.98%
August 30 4.52% 3.97%
September 6 4.54% 3.99%
September 13 4.60% 4.06%
September 20 4.65% 4.11%

 

 

The steady interest rates are a result of a variety of factors that have been applying pressure—both upwards and downwards—on the rates. The balanced economy, strong corporate earnings and worries over rising inflation have applied upward pressure while slowing home sales, concerns about the global economy, and other international “drama”—such as the recent currency problem in Turkey—have applied downward pressure on the rates.

Going forward, two opposing factors that may influence interest rates in the near future are the Federal Reserve’s pronouncement that we’ll see one or two more hikes to the key short-term interest rate this year and the possible economic ramifications of the current tension surrounding tariffs and trade.

As always, to get the best information on interest rate trends, talk to your mortgage professional. ∆

 

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